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1.4 Million Automated Trucks to be Sold by 2040

| September 25, 2018

automated truck

In a new report, Interact Analysis is forecasting the beginning of a long and irreversible trend toward automation within the truck market. 

The reasons, it notes, are clear: Legislation and societal acceptance provide market headwinds and competitive pressure, logistics efficiency and safety provide significant forward momentum.

Key takeaways are:

  • Largest markets forecast to be China, the US, Japan and Germany. India has potential to over-take Germany and Japan in volume terms if it can overcome legislative and infrastructure challenges
  • Discrete ‘platooning’ sales to decline after 2030, becoming feature-set of higher-level automation
  • Highway driving to fuel early adoption
  • New sales process and business models needed
  • Major opportunities, some not being addressed by industry

Platooning, an ‘efficiency’ automation provides the basis for initial market growth, particularly in the US and Western Europe. However, as technology is proven, and effective legislation enacted, higher levels of automation that lessen the need for drivers will be adopted.

These higher levels of automation that bring the principles of factory automation – electrification, constant ‘product’ flow and autonomy – to the road, will gain traction after 2030 and revolutionize the truck and logistics market. The US is forecast to be the early market leader as it contains both an active start-up community trialling the technology and a positive legislative environment enabling trials.

However, China is aggressively pursuing its own, domestically sourced technologies and has several start-ups and established OEMs investigating higher levels of automation. If Chinese legislators pursue a similar approach with autonomy as they did (and are doing) with electric vehicles, then China stands to be the dominant market for truck automation over the next 20 years.

Category: General Update, News

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