Economy Strong, but Growth Moderating – Mixed Signals for CV Industry

We don’t anticipate an economy-wide recession this year

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that the overall economic picture remains largely unchanged, with growth moderating in 2019 from last year’s vigorous pace. While slower growth is expected, the danger signals that were flashing at the start of the year have largely moderated, no longer signaling imminent danger. The report provides monthly analysis on transportation trends, equipment markets, and the economy.

“As we have been discussing for a few months now, we don’t anticipate an economy-wide recession this year, but freight-related data points have been sufficiently bad in breadth and duration for us to note a low probability for a freight recession and a significant chance for a rate recession in 2019,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.

He continued, “That said, heavy commercial vehicle markets continue to benefit from key triggers, including still-strong freight rates (currently being marked down from record levels) and new technologies, like better fuel efficiency and safety technologies, as well as increased demand generated in the trailer segment for drop-and-hook to keep drivers moving. Nonetheless, we remain heedful that conditions warrant caution into the end of this year and the beginning of 2020.”

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