Freight Forecast: Bottoming Process Accelerates

But Latent Capacity Puts Rate Rebound At Risk

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, said, “Freight market stabilization progressed this month with a strong rebound in spot rates. The number of trucks parked in April was likely into the six-figure range, and the increased unemployment benefits incentivized drivers not to return to work in the near-term.”

“However, capacity tightness because of too few drivers is much easier to solve than tightness because of too few trucks. With record numbers of qualified drivers looking for work, we expect the current imbalance to be resolved relatively quickly, which will press rates lower as seasonal strength fades in the coming months.”

He concluded, “Thereafter, we see the Class 8 tractor capacity balance tightening for the first time in two years, as this latent capacity is absorbed. As a result of the equipment supply shock from the pandemic, our confidence in a significant freight rate cycle on the longer-term horizon is reinforced.”

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