FTR Shippers Conditions Index Jumps to 10.32 Reflecting Strengthening Market Conditions

The SCI outlook is a bit stronger than the prior forecast with uninterrupted positive readings well into 2024

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) jumped to 10.32 in December from November’s 3.0 reading. The huge drop in fuel prices in December supercharged what were already strong market conditions resulting in the highest SCI reading since May 2020. Even eliminating the strong impact of dropping fuel prices, the December SCI with a very favorable environment for shippers in terms of freight rates, capacity utilization, and volume, would have been the best since the May 2020 reading.
 
The SCI outlook is a bit stronger than the prior forecast with uninterrupted positive readings well into 2024.
 
Todd Tranausky, vice president of rail and intermodal at FTR, commented, “Declining active truck utilization, lower truck rates, and improving rail service should all help shippers experience more favorable conditions going forward. These factors are expected to remain in place through 2023 before starting to swing back toward carriers next year. The improvement will be a welcome respite for shippers who faced higher rates and capacity shortfalls coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.”
 
The February issue of FTR’s Shippers Update, published February 7 provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the December Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through December of 2023. The February issue also includes commentary exploring why the portion of the economy linked to freight transportation remains weak even though Gross Domestic Product continues to see solid increases.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance.

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