Freight market is likely to deliver savings this holiday season

Cass Transportation Indexes – September 2023

Although peak season is off to a muted start, the good news for shippers is the freight market is likely to deliver savings this holiday season.

• Truckload rates actually rose 0.5% in September, more likely a pause in declining rates rather than a change in trend. But, this may be a sign that truckload rates are nearing a bottom.
• Average costs across all modes were down -1.9% m/m 

Our full report has not been published yet due to technical issues, so we are including the data and a few more takeaways in this email. 

September Cass Data

Cass Freight Index – Shipments

• Y/Y change: -6.3%
• 2-year stacked change: -1.8%
• M/M change: 1.7%
• M/M SA change: 1.7%

Cass Freight Index – Expenditures

• Y/Y change: -25.4%
• 2-year stacked change: -9.6%
• M/M change: -0.2%
• M/M SA change: -1.6%

Cass Inferred Freight Rates

• Y/Y change: -20.4%
• M/M change: -1.9%
• M/M SA change: -3.3%

Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

• Y/Y change: -9.1%
• 2-year stacked change: -5.6%
• M/M change: 0.5%

With the U.S. recession consensus of the first half of 2023 giving way to robust growth, and expectations for an improved freight cycle scuttled by private fleet growth, we’re still left in a fairly strong economy.

With both the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rising sequentially this month, the freight cycle is at least starting to flatten out, with smaller y/y declines. We continue to expect the freight cycle to turn once capacity tightens, but early signs of 2024 equipment production suggest that may be a while.

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