ACT marks 2025 expectations for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks down sharply this month, even as 2024 forecasts push higher

ACT Research: Forecast Changes Driven by Sharp Inventory Gains and Stagnant Fundamentals

ACT marks 2025 expectations for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks down sharply this month, even as 2024 forecasts push higher. The biggest driver of Classes 5-7 and Class 8 2024–2025 forecast changes are driven by excessively strong build relative to retail sales that have led to sharp inventory gains, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

“The forecast changes are driven by across-the-board stagnant, and in some cases worsening, fundamentals,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “At calculated levels, Classes 5-7 and Class 8 inventories are at record levels. Industry backlogs are increasingly consumed. Private fleets have taken around 6% market share from for-hire carriers since early 2023, leaving the for-hire market swimming in capacity despite rising freight volumes. For-hire carrier profitability remained at generationally low levels in Q2’24. And among other factors, with elections and Fed rate cuts inbound, corporate decision making is likely to be increasingly defensive into the fall season.”

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