After four months of sequential declines, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index turned upward

July shows a 3.0% increase from June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, volumes increased 3.1%

Cass Freight Index® – Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 3.0% m/m in July, after four straight declines.

• The index also increased 3.1% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms from a cycle low in June.
• The y/y decline in shipments moderated to 1.1% in July from 6.0% in June.

Goods demand continues to grow slowly, but private fleet capacity additions are slowing, which appears to be reducing the pressure on for-hire shipments.

After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in August and about 4% for the full year.

Cass Freight Index – Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 0.7% m/m in July. The 6.2% y/y decline narrowed from a 9.4% drop in June.

With shipments up 3.0% m/m, we infer from the smaller 0.7% rise in expenditures that rates were down 2.2% m/m in July (see our inferred rates data series below).

• In SA terms, the index rose 1.5% m/m, with shipments up 3.1% and rates down 1.6%.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline about 11% this year. 

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 5.2% y/y in July, after a 3.6% y/y drop in June.

• On a m/m basis, Cass Inferred Freight Rates™ fell 2.2% m/m in July (1.6% SA), returning to the lows of February and March.
• Based on the normal seasonal pattern, the y/y decline in this index in August will be similar to July.
• The normal seasonal pattern from here would leave inferred rates down 7% in 2024.

 

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

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