Constraints Restrain 2021 Commercial Vehicle Expectations

ACT Research reports backlogs and backlog-to-build ratios continuing to rise

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the demand story for commercial vehicles remains unchanged this year, but the supply chain’s ability to respond to demand will be the key determinant of Class 8 and van trailer production in 2021.

According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “With orders remaining hot through preliminary February reporting from ACT, backlogs and backlog-to-build ratios continuing to rise, as well as new vehicle inventories tightening, the problem isn’t demand, but supply.”

He continued, “To no small extent, it appears that the more traditional early-cycle ramping pains, like tires, assorted cast parts, and wiring harnesses, are taking a backseat to more cycle-specific constraints, which begin with the simultaneous global ramp in economic activity overlaid with pandemic-specific challenges.” Vieth concluded, “Demand is so strong for Class 8 and trailers that 2021 build slots are rapidly selling out. In addition, and despite a strong backlog for the Classes 5-7 segment, there is a very real consideration that medium duty output may be deprioritized in favor of demand for Class 8 vehicles, as OEMs grapple with supply chain constraints.”

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