COVID-19 Impacting CV Markets, but Quantifying Data Not Yet Available

Economic information will take the ‘back seat,’ as pre-COVID datapoints fall outside of the context of the new reality

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, key truck transportation metrics now available of January and February data, including ACT’s For-Hire Survey results, may be showing a global supply chain disruption that took place initially in China. That said, the report notes that data are not yet reflecting the COVID-19 impact on the North American commercial vehicle markets or fully showing the supply chain disruptions that have now spread around the world.

“COVID-19 has taken center stage since February, and has engendered a reality of significant human tragedy, as well as concerns about a substantial weakening in the global economic outlook,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He added, “In such an environment, economic information will take the ‘back seat,’ as pre-COVID datapoints fall outside of the context of the new reality. Given the slow dawning of the impact, we would put most March datapoints on the pre-COVID side of the ledger.”

Vieth continued, “Although not official yet, we believe that the US economy entered a recessionary phase starting in March, and with much still unknown about the virus’ effect and the path that recovery could take, assessments remain fluid. ACT continues to evaluate our baseline scenarios for North America, but our current modeling indicates significant economic weakness though Q2 and into Q3, with CV market demand following.” Additionally, he indicated that beyond spending on consumer services, manufacturing, retail, housing, energy, travel and related services, including freight transport, are the most vulnerable industries.

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