Critical Trends Impacting the Freight and Logistics Sector

Motive Monthly Economic Report – June 2024

New insights from the June edition of the Motive Monthly Economic Report. Analysis, based on data from our 120,000 customers, sheds light on key trends in the freight and logistics sector and its impact on the broader supply chain and economy.

• Higher Freight Rates and Market Leverage: Motive predicts that higher freight-per-mile rates during the peak season will squeeze retailers’ margins, granting carriers more leverage by Q4 2024 and early 2025. This shift will result in increased consumer prices by Q2 2025, and retailers will need to rethink their restocking strategies.
• Shifting Power Dynamics in the Supply Chain: Motive’s Big Box Retail Index reveals a 7.8% YoY increase in truck visits to top U.S. retailer warehouses, indicating robust restocking activities. As rates rise and fewer carriers operate in the market, the balance of power will tilt towards carriers, impacting retailer flexibility and costs.
• Market Stability and Job Growth in Trucking: The trucking market is stabilizing with fewer company exits and a steady influx of new carriers. This indicates a recovery from pandemic-induced fluctuations. Positive carrier growth is expected in the next three months, significantly boosting trucking and logistics jobs by the end of the year.

Complex Market Dynamics for Carriers: While the market is becoming more favorable for carriers, nuances such as consumer demand fluctuations and supply chain disruptions could pose challenges. Carriers must operate lean and efficiently to navigate these complexities.

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