CV Industry’s Ability to Meet Demand Still Impacted by Supply-Chain Constraints

ACT Research reports backlogs remain long and order volumes remain constrained

According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report, Russia/China supply-chain disruptions, raging inflation, higher interest rates, and recession potential continue to dominate the narrative.

According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, “Russian commodities remain locked out of Western markets, Ukraine remains besieged, and China continues to struggle with COVID and lockdowns.” He added, “The battle against inflation is global. US inflation continues to accelerate, prompting the Fed to lift the Fed Funds rate 75 basis points this week, the largest increase since 1994, and markets and economists are increasingly predicting a US recession in 2023.” When asked what this all means for commercial vehicle markets, Crawford explained, “While Classes 5-8 production exceeded lowered expectations in May and build plans were largely unchanged, supply-chain risks remain elevated. Moreover, we believe the likelihood of a US economic recession is growing and probability of a mild recession is now about as likely as that of our base-case scenario.”

Regarding commercial vehicle segment production and orders, Crawford commented, “Backlogs remain long and order volumes remain constrained. Until build rates find additional traction, orders will largely mirror production levels, but the steep decline in truckload spot rates ex-fuel in recent months will soon impact vehicle demand.”

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