Freight Forecast: ACT Research Updates Outlook for COVID-19 and Lower Commodities

The cliff event is here and now; we expect spot rates to drop more than 20% in April/May from March

ACT Research released the April installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report. This monthly 56-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides three-year forecasts for volumes and contract rates for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal sectors of the transportation industry.

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, said, “We have further lowered our freight expectations since the mid-month update a couple of weeks ago, as the complexity of the manufacturing restart becomes clearer. The cliff event is here and now; we expect spot rates to drop more than 20% in April/May from March.”

He continued, “The pandemic has caused breakdowns in the economy not seen before in our lifetimes. Freight has adapted to past ‘new normals’ and emerged steady on a per capita basis, and likely will again, eventually, but there are some extraordinary swings coming in the next 12-18 months.”

He concluded, “Perhaps most interesting from our standpoint is the supply-side effects, as lower demand for new equipment and downtime at the manufacturers will reduce capacity significantly over the coming year, setting up a potential capacity crunch when demand recovers.”

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