FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index Improved in October to a Barely Negative -0.3

The outlook is somewhat volatile but should be mostly negative

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved in October to a barely negative -0.3 reading from the previous -3.1 in September. 
 
Aside from a large increase in diesel prices during the month, shippers’ market conditions were more positive m/m. The greatest improvement resulted from a loosening of capacity utilization to the most favorable climate since May 2020 and freight volume and rates were marginally more favorable in October. The outlook is somewhat volatile but should be mostly negative.
 
Todd Tranausky, vice president of rail and intermodal at FTR, commented, “A trend toward weakening diesel prices will aid shipper conditions in the months ahead along with weakening truck utilization which should allow for additional capacity to open up and help stabilize shipper conditions for at least a period of time before things turn negative again in 2023.”
 
The December issue of FTR’s Shippers Update, published December 7, provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the October Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through October of 2023. The December issue also includes commentary discussing why a strong third quarter for the U.S. economy did not translate into strength for the freight economy and why FTR’s freight outlook weakened significantly in the latest forecast.
The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance.

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