March’s Preliminary CV New Order Activity Trending in Narrow Range

ACT Research reports preliminary NA Class 8 net orders in March were 21,300 units, while NA Classes 5-7 net orders rose to 21,200 units

Preliminary NA Class 8 net orders in March were 21,300 units, while NA Classes 5-7 net orders rose to 21,200 units. Complete industry data for March, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-April.

“Long backlogs and supply-chain constrained production activity kept new order activity trending within a narrow range,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He added, “Based on preliminary March inputs, NA Classes 5-8 net orders were up slightly compared to February, and while orders have been moving sideways for most of two quarters, March’s intake was the best since October.”

Vieth concluded, “Recent economic news, to include freight and freight rate data, has been less positive, but we reiterate that the ground rules of ACT’s OEM data collection remain the biggest constraint on orders presently: The OEMs only report orders that are scheduled to be built within 12 months. With the Class 8 backlog-to-build ratio at 11 months in February and the medium-duty backlog-to-build ratio at around 8 months, order volumes since early Q4’21 have largely been mirroring production activity. In both cases, backlog-to-build ratios are essentially double normalized levels.”

Regarding the heavy-duty segment, he noted, “Class 8 orders remained range-bound, posting a virtual carbon copy of February’s order intake. With Class 8 backlogs stretching through 2022 and still no clear visibility on the easing of the everything shortage, March’s net order haul reflects the ongoing conservative approach by the OEMs looking to limit the risk of overbooking and underbuilding that plagued the industry in 2021.” About medium-duty, Vieth said, “With Classes 5-7 backlogs remaining just below all-time levels in February, order moderation continued into March.”

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