New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 55th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business ®.
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI™ registered 57 percent, the second highest reading for the year, just 0.3 percentage point below November’s reading of 57.3 percent.
The New Orders Index increased in December by 0.6 percentage point to 64.2 percent, which is its highest reading since April 2010 when it registered 65.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to November’s reading of 56.5 percent. December’s employment reading is the highest since June 2011 when the Employment Index registered 59 percent.
Manufacturing expanded in December as the PMI™ registered 57 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to November’s reading of 57.3 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI™ in excess of 42.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December PMI™ indicates growth for the 55th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the seventh consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI™ and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI™ for January through December (53.9 percent) corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI™ for December (57 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.6 percent increase in real GDP annually.”
Production
ISM’s Production Index registered 62.2 percent in December, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 62.8 percent reported in November. This month’s reading indicates growth in production for the seventh consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate than in November. An index above 51.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 56.9 percent in December, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 56.5 percent reported in November, and is the highest reading since June 2011 when the Employment Index registered 59 percent. This month’s reading indicates expansion in employment for the sixth consecutive month, at a slightly faster rate than in November.
Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations slowed in December at a faster rate relative to November as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.7 percent. This month’s reading is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 53.2 percent reported in November. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The Inventories Index registered 47 percent in December, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than the 50.5 percent reported in November. This month’s reading indicates that respondents are reporting inventories are contracting, following two consecutive months of growth in raw materials inventories. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The ISM Prices Index registered 53.5 percent in December, which is an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the November reading of 52.5 percent. This month’s reading indicates an increase in raw materials prices for the fifth consecutive month. In December, 20 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 13 percent reported paying lower prices, and 67 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in November. A Prices Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
Backlog of Orders
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.5 percent in December, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in November. This is the third consecutive month of expanding order backlogs. Of the 87 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 23 percent reported greater backlogs, 20 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 57 percent reported no change from November.
New Export Orders
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 55 percent in December, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 59.5 percent reported in November. December’s reading reflects growth in the level of exports for the 13th consecutive month.
New Export OrdersISM’s Imports Index registered 55 percent in December, which is the same percentage that was reported in November. This month’s reading represents the 13th consecutive month that the Imports Index has registered at or above 50 percent.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 13 days to 109 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 7 days to 60 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased 2 days to 29 days.
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is available at www.ism.ws.
Category: General Update
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