Preliminary U.S. Trailer Net Orders Down 39% M/M and 56% Y/Y, 52% Lower YTD

A change in fleet confidence could quickly result in an order rebound

ACT’s preliminary estimate for November indicates that trailer manufacturers booked 19.5k net orders to their orderboards last month, a 39% decline from October’s volume. Activity was 56% below November of 2018, while year-to-date net orders are just under half that of last year.

Before accounting for cancellations, new orders of 21.1k trailers were off 43% month-over-month and 54% below last year. Final volume will be available later this week. This preliminary market estimate should be within +/- 3% of the final order tally.

 “The sequential decline in November broke a four-month streak of monthly gains. That ran counter to the industry’s normal order patterns, which point to November typically ranking as the best order month of the year,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. He continued, “The cautious stance toward 2020 cap-ex spending is evident in both the level and pattern of fleet trailer orders as we approach year-end.”

Additionally, Maly said, “One positive take-away from the November stats is a significant easing in cancellations compared to previous months. That’s an indication that, while lower, the commitments on the orderboard appear to be firming as we close the year.” He added, “Discussions with trailer OEMs also indicate that, although they are encountering pricing pressure, quote activity remains solid, so any change in fleet confidence could quickly result in an order rebound.”

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