Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence Survey Reveals Improved Carrier Outlook Despite Ongoing Challenges

“An acceleration in carrier exits could speed up the market’s return to equilibrium and provide a better backdrop for rates next year.”

According to the latest Bloomberg | Truckstop survey, which polled owner-operators and small fleets, carriers who have faced challenges with weak demand and low rates are now seeing signs of improvement ahead, though some are still considering a shift in their careers.

“Despite greater optimism over the outlook, more carriers expressed an intent to leave the business than in our prior survey,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “An acceleration in carrier exits could speed up the market’s return to equilibrium and provide a better backdrop for rates next year.”

The Bloomberg | Truckstop 3Q24 Truckload Survey shows: 

• Rates may bounce back soon: Spot rates remained suppressed in 3Q, falling 17% on average excluding fuel, according to respondents, but more see the view brightening. An increase over the next 3-6 months was expected by 29% of carriers, 6 percentage points higher than the survey three months ago. There are indications that the market is moving closer to equilibrium. Truckstop’s Market Demand Index for the North American trucking market increased 13% on average in 3Q from last year, the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains.
• Demand may gradually increase: Sentiment going forward appears to be more optimistic, even though carriers continued to see lower volume in 3Q, with 56% of respondents noting weaker demand compared with last year. Higher volume over the next 3-6 months is expected by 40%, 7 percentage points better than our 2Q survey. An improved demand outlook could also lead to more carriers buying equipment, with 24% saying they might make a purchase in the next 3-6 months, 3 percentage points better than the 2Q responses. Weak demand was cited by 34% as the main reason for not buying.
• Carriers face uncertainty about their futures: More carriers see themselves exiting the industry, with 15% saying they believe they’ll be out of trucking in six months, 6 percentage points higher than the 2Q survey. Excess capacity has been slow to leave the market, and any acceleration could help spot rates move higher, setting up for a better 2025.

“Carriers are optimistic that the toughest times are now behind them,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop. “Truckstop continues to be a trusted partner, empowering carriers to thrive in a dynamic market with innovative solutions designed to help them to manage, safeguard and expand their businesses.”

The Bloomberg | Truckstop survey of owner-operators and small fleets provides timely channel checks into the health of the spot market. The sample size was 171, consisting of dry-van, flatbed, temperature-controlled and specialized/diversified, hot-shot and step-deck carriers. Of the respondents, 53% operate just one tractor.

 

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