U.S. Exports Continue to Fall; Imports Expected to Pick Up

As a sign of economic activity that impacts fleets, imports of ocean containers dropped 8.4 percent in November, while exports of ocean containers fell 10.9 percent.

Both November drops are characteristic of a cyclical slowdown. According to Cass Information Systems, “Retailers had already stocked up for the holiday season with noplans to replenish until tallying post‐holiday sales and inventories.”

Anticipated port troubles on the West coast caused many retailers to order early.

Others, who had waited or were rebuilding stocks, especially for toy shipments, were impacted by the delays at the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach. All ports with the ability to handle large TEU ships faced issues with capacity.

With the increased volumes ‐ and thus narrowed time frame for unloading and moving goods away from the ports ‐ chassis were in short supply.

The import container index was 1.5 percent lower than the same month in 2013. Once again, declining imports from China, our largest ocean container trading partner, accounted for nearly half the decline. Imports were also down, however, from 19 of the 25 nations tracked in the index.

Cass anticipates that with “the trends established over the last several years, there should be an uptick in December.”

The 10.9 percent drop in ocean container exports reversed the 7.1 percent gain in October. Exports fell to 23 of our top 25 ocean container trading partners, with container shipments to China being the only significant increase.

2014 ocean container exports have been well below the previous two years’
volumes, and November was no exception, coming in at 17.9 percent lower than November 2013.

Year‐to‐date exports are down 22.3 percent. Most of the world’s economies have not grown as fast as the U.S. economy during the last half of 2014. The final estimate for third quarter GDP showed a 5 percent annual growth rate, with upward revisions in personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed expenditures.

Source: Cass Information Systems

 

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