Freight Forecast: Spot Rate Spike is Here, Contract Rate Increases Following Soon

ACT Research says “A freight recovery amidst a driver shortage has driven an acutely tight truckload market”

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, said, “A freight recovery amidst a driver shortage has driven an acutely tight truckload market, with spot rate measures up 30% y/y. Looking forward, we now see a new phase of the pandemic, with tightness easing as stimulus benefits fade. The spike in used truck sales shows that process underway.”

He added, “Our Spot Leading Indicator, a survey-based measure of the direction of rates, is now consistent with 30% y/y increases in spot rates, but with latent equipment capacity and additional stimulus looking unlikely, a peak seems near.”

Denoyer concluded, “While the path ahead includes puts and takes, we see medium-term freight rate trends moving higher on tighter supply and recovering demand.”

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