Growth Slows in Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index increased only 1.1% year over year in December, after growing 1.6% and 1.9% in November and October respectively.

With softening demand and more available capacity, 2016 forecasted price increases remain between 1% and 3%, according to Avondale Partners. Also noteworthy is the negative imbalance between truckload spot and contract pricing. With the spot market tending to lead contract pricing directionally and decreases not seen since 2009, “current spot market weakness have lasted long enough to begin to be troubling,” Avondale continued.

The Cass Intermodal Price Index dropped another 3.8% year over year in December after declines of 2.4% in November and 3.2% in October. This caps 12 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, a decline that is second only to the 13 months from Dec 2008 through Dec 2009 since the index inception in 2005 (albeit this recent cumulative decline is considerably less than that experienced throughout ‘09).

Although analysts at Avondale Partners expect intermodal volumes to grow in the low single digits, they predict “rates will continue to decline in 2016 as the dramatic drop in diesel prices and even more dramatic drop in oil takes its toll on US domestic demand.”

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