New freight supply chain data – inflation is slowing but retail recovery is lagging

Motive has seen an 11% increase in truck utilization compared to Jan 2022

Ahead of next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Feb 14th, comes new data from Motive (formerly Keep Truckin), who has seen early indicators that the US supply chain continues to rebound, slowing inflation, but retail demand is still soft. 

Motive sees trends before they hit the market because of where it sits in the US supply chain. Its data represents over 120K customers, half a million commercial vehicles and millions of drivers. In its latest report, Motive’s data found:

• Normalizing supply chain + decline in energy/food prices = slowing inflation.
  • Motive has seen an 11% increase in truck utilization compared to Jan 2022 while diesel fuel prices have decreased by 15% since Nov 2022. 
  • With delays in docking and discharging cargo at ports removed, combined with greater trucking capacity, lead times and transportation costs have largely normalized to pre-COVID levels. 
  • The last CPI showed decline in energy prices and food prices relative to the mid-2022 high inflationary period. A healthier supply chain and reduced transportation costs will continue to support this disinflationary trend.
• Retail recovery is slow; currently in a “wait and see” period.
  • The supply chain is healthier and we are seeing overall increases in freight activity but we’re not seeing a corresponding rebound in retail following the holidays.
  • In fact, we’ve seen a 20% decrease of retail activity when compared to Jan 2022. 
  • There is healthy hesitancy to vastly increase inventory with lower confidence on the future outlook. Buyers are in “wait and see” mode knowing that there will be less supply chain risk than in years prior.

Motive serves over 120,000 customers who operate in the physical economy, from small businesses to Fortune 500 enterprises. Customers power the growth of the U.S. supply chain—in construction, oil and gas, transportation and logistics, agriculture, distribution, and beyond.
They’re the people who grow our food, transport our materials, stock our stores, and pipe
energy to homes.
Motive technology is installed in more than 20% of all for-hire trucks in North America, giving
us representative insight into the over-the-road supply chain.

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