FTR’s TCI for November Reflects an Improved Environment for Carriers Due Mostly to Fuel

Falling diesel prices tend to slow exits of very small carriers, which could further depress capacity utilization and deflate any upward pressure on rates

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for November improved to a reading of -1.35 from the previous month’s -6.07. The gain resulted primarily from a sharp drop in fuel prices, but all key factors contributing to FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index were more favorable for carriers in November. The outlook remains modestly negative through late 2024.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Unfortunately for carriers, November’s market conditions likely were the least unfavorable that they will be through at least the first half of this year barring another sustained slide in diesel prices. However, as we have noted frequently, lower fuel costs are complicated. Falling diesel prices tend to slow exits of very small carriers, which could further depress capacity utilization and deflate any upward pressure on rates. Meanwhile, freight demand shows no signs of improving significantly in the near term. Trucking should see incremental improvement throughout 2024 but not enough to create any real inflection in the market.”

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