Motive data: Freight recession, trucking contractions to start impacting consumers in Q1 2024

3,168 carriers left the trucking market in October, keeping pace with the average for 2023. Registrations for new carriers simultaneously dropped 7.5% from September

The latest Motive Monthly Economic Report, analyzing the major trends in the supply chain and economy through the lens of Motive’s platform and data. Motive’s October data revealed that the trucking market keeps contracting, despite more trucks visiting the warehouses of the top 50 North American retailers. 

Hamish Woodrow, Head of Strategic Analytics at Motive, predicts that the uncertainty of the freight recession in 2023 will give way to more direct impacts on consumers in 2024.

• What’s New: Consumer prices have remained relatively stable, even with the overall increase in diesel prices in 2023, but that may change soon. Expect rising prices for consumers as trucking capacity continues to sink and level out with consumer demand in Q1 2024.
• Why this matters: Leaders must plan for uncertainties by assessing cost structures and creating realistic contingency plans for their company’s best, mid-, and worst-case scenarios.
• Dig deeper:
  • Retail: Top retailers saw a rise of over 7% in trucking visits to their warehouses in October as they are normalizing their restocking efforts ahead of the holidays. This represents only a 4% gap from levels of activity this time last year, compared to a 15% YoY gap in June.
    • This spike occurred in the second and third weeks of October, as a result of Amazon Prime Day and competing discounting efforts from other retailers.
  • Carrier Market: 3,168 carriers left the trucking market in October, keeping pace with the average for 2023. Registrations for new carriers simultaneously dropped 7.5% from September,  hitting their lowest levels \since the peak of the pandemic in June 2020.
  • Oil/gas: High diesel prices (one of the biggest costs for carriers) haven’t impacted consumers much because excess trucking capacity has kept freight prices low. But once capacity is more balanced to consumer demand levels (likely in Q1) those costs are going to start being passed to retailers and consumers. 

View Full Report Here

Data Methodology

• The Motive Monthly Economic Report uses aggregated and anonymized insights from the Motive network, as well as publicly available government data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. Census, and U.S. Department of Transportation.
• Motive’s technology is embedded into more than 20% of for-hire trucks in North America today giving it a representative view of the over-the-road supply chain. 
• Motive data represents over 120K customers from SMBs to the enterprise across trucking and logistics, delivery, construction, food and beverage, oil and gas, and more. 

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